The 2018 Senate midterm elections presents Republicans with a host of opportunities, but the party has already lost several top-tier candidates to fill the seats.
GOP Reps. Sean DuffySean DuffyBottom line McCarthy blasts Pelosi’s comments on Trump’s weight Overnight Health Care: Trump says testing may be ‘overrated’ | Ousted official warns national virus plan needed | NIH begins studying drug combo touted by Trump MORE (Wis.) and Pat Meehan (Pa.) both recently announced that they’ll run for reelection instead of mounting Senate runs in blue-leaning states where President Trump pulled off upset victories.
Republicans are losing out on potential challengers in safely GOP states, too. Indiana Rep. Susan BrooksSusan Wiant BrooksDemocrat Christina Hale and Republican Victoria Spartz to face off in House race in Indiana Key races to watch in Tuesday’s primaries The Hill’s Campaign Report: More Republican women are running for House seats MORE ruled out a run. Montana Rep. Ryan Zinke will likely be confirmed to lead the Interior Department, taking a top competitor out of the mix in that deep red state.
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“The House [members] are generally pretty politically savvy people,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a politics website that handicaps elections. “They know midterms are often — not always — bad for the president’s party.”
“Trump is off to a historically weak start in terms of his approval. … You got a lot of members of the House who are in relatively safe seats. Maybe they’re making the determination that this might not best year to run for Senate.”
While a few star GOP contenders have bowed out, Republicans are shrugging it off. They point to a deep bench of other credible candidates who they believe are just as capable of taking on vulnerable Democrats.
Republicans argue that it’s too early to tell whether Trump’s performance or midterm election dynamics are impacting House members’ decisions against Senate bids. While the first few weeks of his administration have been chaotic, they say voters in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin may view the president differently than those within the Beltway.
“It’s kind of hard to see the ‘this caused that,’” because what is “happening in the states is a lot different than what’s happening in our view,” said a national Republican operative.
Democrats will mostly be on defense in 2018, with 10 of their seats up in states Trump carried. But even with a rough map, the party of the incumbent president historically sees losses during the first two years in office.
“The folks that are saying they don’t want to run right now, I’m happy they’re doing it,” said a national Democratic operative focused on Senate races.
“They’ve got deep benches in a lot of these states, so we’re prepared for them to put forward credible challengers, and we’re getting ready for tough races all over the map,” the operative said, adding that all of the vulnerable Democratic incumbents are “experienced, dedicated, hardworking.”
In Pennsylvania, Meehan was seen as a top contender, but his spokesman noted the prominent role on the House Ways and Means Committee that he would have to give up to run.
Meehan had nearly $2 million to mount a credible run and, while his district is considered only GOP-leaning, he’s won each reelection with at least 60 percent of the vote since he came to Congress in 2010.
Even though Trump ended up pulling off a razor-thin victory in Pennsylvania, Meehan had called on him to end his campaign after a 2005 tape was leaked in which Trump bragged about groping and kissing women without consent. Meehan said he would instead cast a vote for Trump’s running mate, then-Indiana Gov. Mike PenceMichael (Mike) Richard PencePence posts, deletes photo of Trump campaign staff without face masks, not social distancing Pence threatens to deploy military if Pennsylvania governor doesn’t quell looting Pence on Floyd: ‘No tolerance for racism’ in US MORE.
GOP strategists in the state say it was disappointing to see Meehan pass on a Senate bid, but they say other “serious” contenders are eyeing the seat to take on Democratic Sen. Bob CaseyRobert (Bob) Patrick Casey21 senators urge Pentagon against military use to curb nationwide protests Overnight Health Care: Trump says US ‘terminating’ relationship with WHO | Cuomo: NYC on track to start reopening week of June 8 | COVID-19 workplace complaints surge 10 things to know today about coronavirus MORE.
“I think you’ll see several serious contenders emerge over the course of the next few weeks,” said Charlie Gerow, a Pennsylvania GOP strategist.
Casey, who is seeking his third term in the upper chamber, is considered a tough competitor to beat by both parties. Still, Republicans believe he has shifted from being a moderate to a “hard left” Democrat over the years.
“I think there is a growing feeling that Bob Casey is vulnerable and that the opportunity to capture that seat is very real,” Gerow said. “It will be an uphill battle, but it’s one that is increasingly seen as winnable.”
State Sen. Rick Saccone has already filed to run for the seat. There are other GOP House members from Pennsylvania who could run, including Reps. Mike Kelly and Charlie Dent.
In Wisconsin, Duffy passed on a promotion, citing his family. He has eight children, and GOP strategists in the state stress that his decision was based on family reasons rather than political calculations.
Duffy, an early backer of Trump, was seen as a top challenger and some possible candidates were waiting on him to make a decision. But the Wisconsin congressman has recently made some controversial statements while defending Trump’s travel ban.
“If he’s going to not run, it is helpful for him to step aside early so things coalesce around someone else because there are other talented people who could be good candidates,” a Wisconsin Republican operative said. “It’s helpful he made that clear early.
Wisconsin strategists say Eric Hovde, a businessman who unsuccessfully ran in the GOP primary for Senate in 2012, is a “clear option” to take on Democratic Sen. Tammy BaldwinTammy Suzanne BaldwinBiden launches program to turn out LGBTQ vote We need a ‘9-1-1’ for mental health — we need ‘9-8-8’ Democrats introduce bill to rein in Trump’s power under Insurrection Act MORE. Other names that have been floated include businessman and Marine veteran Kevin Nicholson, state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald and a few state legislators.
Baldwin is running for her second term and recently scored a spot on Senate Democratic leadership. She served in the House from 1999 to 2013 before she was elected to the upper chamber as the first openly gay senator.
This is her first time on the ballot during a non-presidential year, which makes Republicans argue that she rode the wave of former President Obama’s 2012 reelection. And with Trump eking out a win in the Badger State, they believe Baldwin’s politics don’t match those of the states’ voters.
“Tammy is understood to be so deeply vulnerable,” the GOP operative said. “Tammy won with tidal wave turnout thanks to Obama in 2012. She’s not going to have that level of turnout in 2018.”
In Indiana, Brooks ruled out a run, but other House members have been showing interest in challenging Democratic Sen. Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyEx-Sen. Joe Donnelly endorses Biden Lobbying world 70 former senators propose bipartisan caucus for incumbents MORE. GOP Rep. Luke Messer is “seriously” considering a Senate run and GOP Rep. Todd Rokita also wouldn’t rule it out.
And in another deep red state, behind the scenes maneuvering helped Democratic Sen. Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterSenate confirms Trump’s watchdog for coronavirus funds Montana barrels toward blockbuster Senate fight The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip MORE lose a formidable opponent in Montana. Zinke was being groomed to take on Tester in a state Trump won by more than 20 points. Instead, the president tapped him to helm the Interior Department.
So far, no other candidates in Montana have emerged.
A number of other House GOP members are still sitting on the sidelines as they consider waging Senate bids, including GOP Reps. Kevin Cramer (N.D.), Ann Wagner (Mo.), Evan Jenkins (W.V.) and Barbara Comstock (Va.).
With a little under two years to go and a nascent presidential administration, Kondik said lawmakers may bide their time and assess the political environment in the coming months. He also noted that House members who initially passed could still reverse course over the next two years like then-Rep. Cory GardnerCory Scott GardnerSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Interior faces legal scrutiny for keeping controversial acting leaders in office | White House faces suit on order lifting endangered species protections | Lawmakers seek investigation of Park Police after clearing of protesters The Hill’s Campaign Report: Republicans go on attack over calls to ‘defund the police’ MORE in 2014 and Sen. Marco RubioMarco Antonio RubioHillicon Valley: Georgia officials launch investigation after election day chaos | Senate report finds Chinese telecom groups operated in US without proper oversight Republican Senators ask FCC to ‘clearly define’ when social media platforms should receive liability protections Trump’s tweet on protester sparks GOP backlash MORE running for reelection in 2016.
“I think you could have a situation where there are a number of members on both sides who are trying to take the temperature of the environment over the next many months,” Kondik said.
“It’s possible for someone who says no now will decide later to do it.”